Thinking Like A Poker Player
January 20, 2008 | Comments Off
Thinking Like a Poker Player
Poker pros are commonly described as tight and aggressive: “These poker pros do not play many hands, but when they play them, they play them like they had the nuts.”
That’s a nice general description, but it doesn’t say much. And it’s not even totally right about no-limit games, since a solid, loose-aggressive player is a person to be feared. Thus, I think when people say a player is tight-aggressive and therefore good, I really think they mean that the player has mastered four critical elements of poker.
#1. Math skills
They know that you have about 1 in 8.5 chance of hitting a set when holding a pocket pair, and that you have about a 1 in 3 chance of completing a flopped flush draw by the river.
They know the importance of ‘outs.’ Outs are simply the number of cards that will improve your hand. Count your outs, multiply them by two, and add one, and that’s roughly the percentage shot you have at hitting.
They can figure out the ‘pot odds.’ Knowing outs is meaningless unless it’s translated into rational, calculated betting. Knowing you have a 20% chance of hitting, what do you do then? Well, simply once you figure out your chance of hitting/winning, you divide the size of the pot at the river (i.e. the current pot plus the amount of money that you think will be added through future bets) by the amount you have to put in. If you have a 20% chance of hitting and the bet to you is 50, if the pot at the river will be greater than 250, call. If not, fold.
Math skills are the most basic knowledge; it’s day one reading. Anyone who doesn’t understand these concepts should not play in a game until they do.
#2. Discipline
Good poker players demand an advantage. What separates a winning poker player from a fish is that a fish does not expect to win, while a poker player does. A fish is happy playing craps, roulette, the slots; he just hopes to get lucky. A poker player does not hope to get lucky; he just hopes others don’t get lucky.
Good poker players understand that a different game requires a different discipline. A disciplined no-limit player can be a foolish limit player and vice versa. A disciplined limit player has solid pre-flop skills. When there is not much action pre-flop, he or she only plays the better hands. When a lot of people are limping in, he or she will make a loose call with a suited connector or other speculative hand.
However, a disciplined no-limit player is very different. This player is not so concerned with paying too many blinds; instead, he or she does not want to get trapped. The main difference between disciplined limit players and disciplined no-limit players is that the limit player avoids piddling away his stack bit by bit while a disciplined no-limit player avoids losing his whole stack in one hand. Hence, a disciplined no-limit player can play a lot of hands. Preflop, he or she can be extremely loose and limp in with hands as odd as 5 3. However, a good no-limit player knows when to toss hands that will get him or her in trouble.
A disciplined player knows when to play and when to quit. He recognizes when he is on tilt and is aware when a game is too juicy to just quit while ahead.
A disciplined player knows that he is not perfect. When a disciplined player makes a mistake, he learns. He does not blame others. He does not cry. He learns from the mistake and moves on.
#3. Psychological Skills
A good player is not a self-centered player. He may be the biggest SOB you know. He may not care about anyone but himself, and he may enjoy stealing food from the poor. However, when a poker pro walks into a poker room, he always empathizes with his opponents. He tries to think what they think and understand the decisions they make and why they make them. The poker pro always tries to have an answer to these questions:
What does my foe have?
What does my foe think I have?
What does my foe think I think he has?
Knowing the answer to these questions is the first step, manipulating the answers is the second and more important step. If you have a pair of kings and your foe has a pair of aces, and you both know what each other have and both know that you each know what the other has, why play a game of poker? A poker pro manipulates the latter two answers by slowplaying, fastplaying, and bluffing in order to throw his opponent off.
Good poker players know that psychology is much, much, much more important in a no-limit game than in a limit one. Limit games often turn into math battles, while no-limit games carry a strong psychology component. Thus, poker tells are much more important in no-limit games than limit games.
#4. A Clear Understanding of Risk vs. Reward
Pot odds and demanding an advantage fall into this category. Poker players are willing to take a long-shot risk if the reward is high enough, but only if the expected return is higher than the risk.
More importantly, they understand the risk-vs.-reward nature of the game outside of the actual poker room. They know how much bank they need to play, and how much money they need in reserve to cover other expenses in life.
Good poker players understand they need to be more risk-averse with their overall bankroll than their stack at the table.
When you play in an individual game, you must value every chip equally at the table. You should only care about making correct plays. If you buy in for $10, you should be okay with taking a 52% chance of doubling up to $20 if it means a 48% chance of losing your $10.
However, you should be risk-averse with your overall bankroll. You need to have enough money so that any day at the tables will not affect your bankroll too much. If you worry too much about losing, then you will make mistakes at the table. You need to leave yourself with the chance to fight another day.
The Early Stages: Stealing Antes
January 20, 2008 | Comments Off
There is definitely a better mathematical arguement for stealing blinds or coming over the top of other poker players who are apparently making blind steals. But some players (sometimes me) like to sit back and let the other players at the poker table do the dirty work for us. These players like to let the other poker players go crazy and then nail them when they finally do catch a hand. I guess, like everything else though, it just depends on who is at your table and what they have been doing.Actually, a lot of times I will sit back and let the other poker players at the table outplay me for long periods of time and then bust them, leaving nothing but the felt. I let them build up their confidence and think that they can outplay me and eventually they get sloppy, make a move on me and Bam! They’re busted.
Anyway, so at an agressive table, I’ll relax a bit and wait until the agressive players present me with an opportunity to take all of their chips (or outdraw me, lol). But, at a passive table, I will try and control the action by making raises and rereaises.
Deception in Poker
January 19, 2008 | Comments Off
Poker is not just a mathematical game. It is also a game that entails a lot of psychological combat. Three of the most important psychological weapons in poker are bluffing, semi-bluffing, and slowplaying.
Bluffing
Contrary to popular belief, bluffing is almost useless in a low limit game (anything less than $2-4). Rarely will people not call to a showdown, so there is no point in scaring people out of the pot. I suggest waiting to bluff until you play at a higher limit. When you play at a higher limit, it’s best to bluff when you ‘represent’ something and there are only one or two opponents in the pot. For example, betting at the flop with a high card on the board ‘represents’ a pair, raising when a flush is possible ‘represents’ the flush. Bluffing is also much more useful in a no-limit game than a limit game.
Semi-Bluffing
Semi-bluffing is the same as bluffing except you possess a strong draw.
Your Hand
Board
You currently only have Ace high, but you may hit a spade flush or make a pair of Aces or Kings. Thus, if you bet with this hand, you are bluffing at the pot but have a high likelihood of possessing a strong hand on later betting rounds. Semi-bluffing is a very useful technique at times, especially in no-limit games.
Slowplaying
Slowplaying means deceiving your opponents into thinking you have less of a hand then you do.
Your Hand
Board
You flopped a full house! There is no need to scare people out of the pot because there is little chance of someone drawing out on you. Thus, you should wait to the turn or maybe even river to jam the pot with bets and raises. You should slowplay if two conditions are met:
1. You hold a whopper and there is almost no chance of someone drawing on you
2. You will only get action if some other cards come out that will improve your opponents’ hands. Nonetheless, these cards are not good enough to make their hands beat your hand.
Short Run versus Long Run
January 19, 2008 | Comments Off
Whenever someone draws me out with very poor odds, I’m tempted to bang my head against the table. However, I try to console myself by reminding myself of all the drawouts I’ve performed on people and more importantly, it’s the fact that my opponent is drawing to poor odds that allows me to win in the Long Run.
What exactly is the Long Run?
There is no precise definition for the Long Run and it varies depending on the game. Limit Poker has a fairly short Long Run. I’d wager that almost all winning players will show a profit after 250 hours of play and most losing players will show a loss after that amount of time. However, any given hour can be totally different. In fact, the Short Run of Limit Poker is very brutal because of the vast potential for cheap drawouts.
However, the length of the Long Run depends on the skill advantage one has. If one has a very large advantage, the Long Run will kick quite soon. In contrast, a very small skill advantage will seemingly take forever to be meaningful.
Luck Becomes a Factor in Short Run Poker
Of course, any 100 hands can bring just about anything in Limit Poker. There is only so much skill involved, so luck will be a very dominating factor in a small group of hands. Yet, a very important thing about Limit Poker is that there are few ‘huge’ hands. While the pots can be very big on some hands, you do not have the capability to lose your whole stack on any given hand. When, in fact, the pot is very big, it is generally a multi-way pot so you only invested a fraction of what’s at stake. Because of the lack of the capability to lose a lot in one hand, short-run fluctuations do not make a very huge dent in the Long Run of Limit Poker.
Skill Dominates Long Run Poker
Because any one hand involves a lot of luck but a thousand hands are not swayed too terribly by luck, I suggest sticking to a comfortable limit when playing fixed-limit games. ‘Making a run for it’ is a very bad idea at Limit Poker because there is an awfully large amount of luck in the Short Run, and there really is no need to gamble because the Long Run happens quite quickly.
In contrast, No-Limit Poker has a fairly short Short Run but a longer Long Run. How does this make sense? Well, it’s the concept of big hands. At Limit Poker with a decent sized buy-in, it’s almost impossible to double up or lose your stack on one hand. However, this is common in No-Limit Poker. However, when these big hands occur, generally the better player has a sizeable advantage at No-Limit. Since the results of the No-Limit session will be widely dependent on a few of these hands, generally a strong No-Limit player will win simply because he will win a couple of these big hands. He may lose a bunch of small hands but will show a profit at the end of the day because of at least one or two big ones.
However, because one’s outcome is so dependent on a few hands, the Long Run takes longer to kick in. Let’s say you have some bad luck at No-Limit. On three occasions, you go all-in on the flop with a 70% chance to win and lose all three times. These three huge hits will take awhile to win back. A very bad run at No-Limit can take weeks to heal.
Because there is more skill in the Short Run, people are more willing to ‘make a run for it’ at No-Limit. Nevertheless, this is still a bad idea because if you play a game whose stakes you are not comfortable with and your game will suffer. You cannot play scared at No-Limit, so you should always play in a game whose stakes are not significant to you.
Skill is a relative concept. The greater your skill differential over your opponents, the quicker you can expect to reach the Long Run. Always be aware that any win or loss one day does not say that much about your skill, and if you have shown a loss over several months, perhaps you should wake up and smell the coffee about your poker skill.
Pot Odds
January 19, 2008 | Comments Off
When you see a flop, you will generally be in one of three situations.
Situation #1: Your hand totally misses the board.
|
|
Your Hand | Board |
You have nothing, so you should check and fold.
Situation #2: You hit the flop well and hold a strong hand.
|
|
Your Hand | Board |
In these situations, you should generally bet or raise.
Situation #3: Drawing hand
The third possibility is that you currently do not hold a strong hand, but it is possible for you to make a strong hand if the turn or river brings you a good card. This situation is known as “drawing.” Example:
|
|
Your Hand | Board |
In this situation, a spade will make you a flush, and an Ace or King will bring you top pair.
When you are drawing, there are several tools that will help you make your decisions. One important tool is “pot odds.” Calculating pot odds is fairly simple. First, you must count the number of outs you have. An out is a card that will improve your hand.
|
|
Your Hand | Board |
In this example, your outs are 4 Aces and 4 Nines, or 8 outs total. To calculate your percentage of hitting an out on the next card, you take the # of outs times 2, then add 1. In the above situation with 8 outs, you have roughly a 17% chance of hitting on the turn.
Once you figure out your chance of hitting a draw, you multiply it by the pot plus the bet to see what the maximum bet is that you can call.
For example, if the bet is $10 and the pot is $90, the bet plus the pot is $100.
Now let’s say you have 6 outs (6 cards will help you). This means you have about a 13% chance of hitting. If the pot is $90 and you must call $10, you should call because you can call as long as you have at least a 10% chance to hit (10/100, the total pot is 90+10). However, if the bet to you was $20, you should fold, because that would require a 18.2% chance of hitting (20/110). For more practice with pot odds, check out our Pot Odds Calculator (coming soon)
VC Poker Changes Loyalty Point Score
January 19, 2008 | Comments Off
VC Poker’s Action Point loyalty point redemption store is being replaced by a point redemption store from Initial Poker within the next 12 weeks, according to an announcement this week.
This is excellent news for VC Players and for players on VC poker licensees as both will soon be able to cash in their player points for a wide range of products ranging from poker chips and cards to iPods and Plasma TV’s. The orders will be fulfilled from dedicated warehouses located in the UK and The Netherlands.
The software powering Initial Poker’s stores was developed specifically for the gambling industry to offer seamless transactions from sites’ player databases to Initial Poker’s e-commerce platform. Other clients of Initial Poker include Poker Heaven, Purple Lounge & Betfair.
Lee Ferris, marketing manager for VC Poker said “We’re pleased to rollout a new and improved Action Point Store to our loyal customers offering a wide range of goods exclusive to VC Poker. Initial Poker delivers top notch merchandise with an outstanding commitment to customer service and we’re pleased to partner with them to deliver an exceptional Rewards experience for our valued clientele.”
Lucky Hog ReLaunches
January 19, 2008 | Comments Off
The online poker room Lucky Hog has come back online with a new poker network, according to a recent press release.
Two poker networks had let the online poker room down and now the business is taking a gamble on a third. While the poker room network has changed, the management has not, which should be good news to players.
Lucky Hog Security
Security and payments are always important when a poker room such as Lucky Hog shifts networks. It’s good to know that when Lucky Hog had to shut down and switch networks they made sure to pay out players, even going into their own pockets and adding money to accounts, according to the press release.
Beware the Minimum Raise
January 19, 2008 | Comments Off
Phil Gordon plays online poker exclusively at Fulltilt Poker.
Say you’re playing in a low-stakes no-limit ring game. The blinds are $.50 and $1, and it’s folded to you in middle position. You find a nice hand – pocket Tens – and bring it in for a standard raise of three times the big blind. It’s folded around to a player in late position, who re-raises the minimum amount, making it $5 to go.
I’ve seen this sort of play repeatedly in the past few months while researching my next No-Limit Hold ‘em book by playing in low-stakes games. Every time I’ve been faced with a minimum re-raise, I’ve been up against a monster – pocket Kings or Aces.
A player who opts for the small raise may think he’s being crafty by getting me to put a little extra money in the pot while he holds a big hand. But this is not a profitable play. There are two major problems with the minimum raise.
I’ve already mentioned the first problem: My opponent has telegraphed his hand. And making good decisions is pretty easy when you know exactly what your opponent holds. The second problem is mathematical. My opponent is giving me 5 to 1 to call the additional raise. (In this example, my extra $2 will give me a chance win $10.) When I make the call, I know that I stand to win a very big pot. My implied odds – the money I stand to make if I hit my hand – more than justify the call. If my opponent started the hand with a $100 stack, I could
get paid at a rate of 50 to 1.
So I call and see a flop. If there’s no Ten on the board, I’m done with the hand. And if there is a Ten, I’m going to wipe my opponent out. As I said, poker is a pretty easy when you know what your opponent holds.
What’s the proper play when you hold Aces and a player has raised in front of you? Find the “Bet Pot” button and click it. Put pressure on a player who you know is starting with a second-best hand. Who knows, if he’s got pocket Queens or A-K, he may be willing to put his entire stack in pre-flop. If he holds something like Jacks or Tens, your big raise will minimize your opponent’s implied odds.
You should be wary of minimum raises at other stages of a hand, as well. Say you raised pre-flop with A-K and one player called. You hit top pair top kicker on a K-8-4 board. You bet out the size of the pot and your opponent min-raises you. At this point, you need to be very
concerned that your opponent has hit a set. You have to wonder why he’d be raising an amount that almost begs for your call.
My advice here is twofold: First is that you should all but eliminate the minimum raise from your game. In some rare circumstances when you hit a full house or quads, it might be appropriate, but that’s about it. Second is that alarm bells should go off whenever you see a min raise. Your opponent probably has a big hand and you need to proceed accordingly.
Playing a Short Stack
January 19, 2008 | Comments Off
The basic strategy to playing shorthanded is if you are stuck with a short stack, you need to take a lot of chances. This axiom is true of life itself, actually. When young, you feel as if you have nothing to lose but when you get older, you stop taking as many chances because you have realized the value of life.
Playing a Short Stack
When you have the chip lead, there is no reason to play loose. You must protect your chips, you’ve earned them and the risk is far too great to gamble. When you are short stacked, you have nothing to lose and everything to gain.
Especially when the blinds are raising and the antes keep coming, that 2k in pot money is worth going all in for with Q9s.
Beginning Stages of a No-Limit Tournament
January 19, 2008 | Comments Off
I have developed a strategy that has suceeded for me more times than anything else. This is the first part of the series and I have titled it exactly what it is, a strategy to win a no-limit tournament.
THE BEGINNING STAGES: Should you steal the Blinds?
The answer to this is an unresoudning NO! With the blinds so small and no ante required, it is very important to stick to a Top Ten Only Strategy – especially when the pot has been raised pre-flop. However, with this strategy in mind, it is important to consider other hands when the pot has not been raised before the flop. For instance, this is an excellent time to play hands like Ax suited, small suited connectors, and smaller pocket pairs. Once again, only when the pot has not been raised pre-flop. The reason for even considering these hands is because occasionally you could win a big pot early with these types of hands and since the blinds are relatively smaller, they are cheaper to play.
The main reason to play super-tight when there is no ante and there have been no raises before the flop is that you can also steal small amounts of money when you do raise the pot.
So, sit back, play patiently for the first few levels of a tournament in hopes that you will have a few opportunities to take a few small pots. Only by playing super tight poker can you do this. But, be very sure to pay attention to the others at your table and their actions. Do they check raise whenever they have a big hand or do they bet it? Try to sharpen your reads in these early stages of the game and gain an edge on your opponents. These reads will allow you to make good moves on your opponents later on, or make good lay downs.
Remember, from the time you hear “Shuffle up and deal!”, the game is on. However, to make it to the later rounds, when the true players come out, it is necessary to emplore some of these tactics early on.